Van Lake Basin Drought Management Plan

Brief Description of the Project:

The project area is Van Lake Basin, which is one of Turkey's 25 basins. Some regions of Van, Bitlis, Muş and Ağrı provinces are located within the borders of the basin.

It is aimed to decrease the negative effects of drought on the production resources and socio-economic life by taking into consideration water budget and sensitivity to the drought of Van Lake Basin by means of an integrated basin management and to ensure the rational and sustainable use of the limited water resources. In scope of the project, following services are performed;

PRELIMINARY REPORT

Detection of Drought Parameters

Data Collection Works

INTERIM REPORT I

Drought Analysis

Drought analysis were performed from actual state until 2100 by using climate projections through the internationally accepted drought indices and indicators such as SPI, PDSI, PHDI, PNI, ZIND, SRI and NDVI. Meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought severity and drought risk maps were prepared in the scale of sub-basin for the actual state and future periods (2017-2100).

Preparation of Drought Risk Maps

Drought periods experienced through previous years in the basin were evaluated in percent according to results of the indices within the scope of the project. As a result, drought risk maps were obtained in 4 different drought classes which are “near normal”, “slight”, “moderate” and “severe”.

INTERIM REPORT II

Hydrological Modeling

7 separate hydrological models were established in order to assess the actual and future water budgets of the basin and reflect the situation of the sub-basins. Model calibrations were carried out in different time periods, generally in 10-year periods in accordance with the situation of the data set in the basin. Validations were applied in Payköy and Bendimahi stations.

Climate Projections

In scope of “Impact of Climate Change on Water Sources Project Final Report” prepared for sub-basin based climate projections, by using 3 models and 2 scenarios, 6 different simulations have been performed. Models: HadGEM2-ES (UK), MPI-ESM-MR (DE), CNRM-CM5.1 (FR)

Basin Water Budget

According to hydrologic model results performed for basin, basin water potentials from past to present have been calculated on a yearly basis. Later, by using climate projection outputs, water potentials in basin have been obtained until 2100, changes were analyzed over graphics.

INTERIM REPORT III

Sectoral Vulnerability Analysis

Sectoral vulnerability analysis was accomplished in terms of potable and domestic water, agriculture, industry, ecosystem and tourism sectors by taking into consideration different drought severities and climate change projections.

Thematic Map Studies

Preparation of Basin Drought Metadata Catalogue

Drought Data Base and Web Application

Basin Drought Data Base with all the data used throughout the project was constituted. Besides, access to project outputs such as drought web application developed based on GIS, drought severity and risk maps were provided for public users according to their role defined.

FINAL REPORT

Preparation of Final Van Lake Basin Drought Management Plan.

Scope of Services:

• Data Supply Works
• Preparation of Preliminary Report
• Preparation of Interim Reports
• Thematic Map Studies
• Delivering Technical Trainings
• Preparing Project Introduction Film and Public Service Announcement
• Preparation of Final Van Lake Basin Drought Management Plan.